The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years

This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.Comment: Submitted to Special Issue of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: 25 years of ensemble predictio

Climate signal and weather noise

A signal of small climate change in either the real atmosphere or numerical simulation of it tends to be obscured by chaotic weather fluctuations. Time-lagged covariances of such weather processes are used to estimate the sampling errors of time average estimates of climate parameters. Climate sensitivity to changing external influences may also be estimated using the fluctuation dissipation relation of statistical mechanics. Answers to many climate questions could be provided by a realistic stochastic model of weather and climate

Generalized thermodynamics and Fokker-Planck equations. Applications to stellar dynamics, two-dimensional turbulence and Jupiter's great red spot

We introduce a new set of generalized Fokker-Planck equations that conserve energy and mass and increase a generalized entropy until a maximum entropy state is reached. The concept of generalized entropies is rigorously justified for continuous Hamiltonian systems undergoing violent relaxation. Tsallis entropies are just a special case of this generalized thermodynamics. Application of these results to stellar dynamics, vortex dynamics and Jupiter's great red spot are proposed. Our prime result is a novel relaxation equation that should offer an easily implementable parametrization of geophysical turbulence. This relaxation equation depends on a single key parameter related to the skewness of the fine-grained vorticity distribution. Usual parametrizations (including a single turbulent viscosity) correspond to the infinite temperature limit of our model. They forget a fundamental systematic drift that acts against diffusion as in Brownian theory. Our generalized Fokker-Planck equations may have applications in other fields of physics such as chemotaxis for bacterial populations. We propose the idea of a classification of generalized entropies in classes of equivalence and provide an aesthetic connexion between topics (vortices, stars, bacteries,...) which were previously disconnected.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Thermodynamic Description of the Relaxation of Two-Dimensional Euler Turbulence Using Tsallis Statistics

Euler turbulence has been experimentally observed to relax to a metaequilibrium state that does not maximize the Boltzmann entropy, but rather seems to minimize enstrophy. We show that a recent generalization of thermodynamics and statistics due to Tsallis is capable of explaining this phenomenon in a natural way. The maximization of the generalized entropy $S_{1/2}$ for this system leads to precisely the same profiles predicted by the Restricted Minimum Enstrophy theory of Huang and Driscoll. This makes possible the construction of a comprehensive thermodynamic description of Euler turbulence.Comment: 15 pages, RevTe

Measurement of the CP-Violating Asymmetry Amplitude sin2β\beta

We present results on time-dependent CP-violating asymmetries in neutral B decays to several CP eigenstates. The measurements use a data sample of about 88 million Y(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected between 1999 and 2002 with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy B Factory at SLAC. We study events in which one neutral B meson is fully reconstructed in a final state containing a charmonium meson and the other B meson is determined to be either a B0 or B0bar from its decay products. The amplitude of the CP-violating asymmetry, which in the Standard Model is proportional to sin2beta, is derived from the decay-time distributions in such events. We measure sin2beta = 0.741 +/- 0.067 (stat) +/- 0.033 (syst) and |lambda| = 0.948 +/- 0.051 (stat) +/- 0.017 (syst). The magnitude of lambda is consistent with unity, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation of no direct CP violation in these modes

Measurement of the electron energy spectrum and its moments in inclusive B -> Xe nu decays

We report a measurement of the inclusive electron energy spectrum for semileptonic decays of B mesons in a data sample of 52 million Y(4S)-->B(B) over bar decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy B-meson factory at SLAC. We determine the branching fraction, first, second, and third moments of the spectrum for lower cutoffs on the electron energy between 0.6 and 1.5 GeV. We measure the partial branching fraction to be B(B-->Xenu,E-e>0.6 GeV)=[10.36+/-0.06(stat.)+/-0.23(sys.)]%

Stochastic models of chaotic systems

Nonlinear dynamical systems, although strictly deterministic, often exhibit chaotic behavior which appears to be random. The determination of the probabilistic properties of such systems is, in general, an open problem. Closure approximations for moment expansion methods have been unsatisfactory. More successful has been approximation on the dynamics level by the use of linear stochastic models that attempt to generate the probabilistic properties of the original nonlinear chaotic system as closely as possible. Examples are reviewed of this approach to simple nonlinear systems, to turbulence, and to large-eddy simulation. A stochastic model that simulates the transient energy spectrum of the global atmosphere is developed